Political Survey Opinion Pre Poll Election Analysis Research

For an individual constituency, we propose a detailed Political Survey Opinion Pre Poll Election Analysis Research before the Election to understand the current political scenario and strategize for the assembly. The baseline research is made up of two components detailed below. Political Survey Opinion Pre Poll Election Analysis Research

Opinion Poll It is imperative for a candidate to understand the current mood of the common voters in the constituency. We analyses this mood accurately using a customized personal opinion poll model where a set of 10-12 questions are asked face to face to a chosen sample of the population on each booth. The sample chosen is segmented according to the caste equation, age and economic strata of the booth. All details like the Name, Age, Gender, Caste, Occupation, Mobile Number, etc., of the respondents would be recorded to help in data analysis and look for trends based on caste, age, occupation etc. The questionnaire for this exercise will focus on the following parameters:

Public perception about the Central and State Governments
Public perception about the local MP and MLA
Party preference of the voters
Best candidates and their strength
Caste, Age and Area wise preference and trends
SWING and SWOT Analysis
Change in voter preferences based on change in caste of contestants
2 Qualitative Research This study will cover every booth of the constituency and within the booth focus group discussions would be carried out to understand the following –

Party Network

Identification of influential people of each party at the booth level
Identification of other socially influential people
Compiling a database of their names, caste, age, occupation and contact numbers.
Issues & Development

Issues which matter the most to the constituents and can have an impact on electoral results
Development work done in the polling booth along with the person to whom the credit for the same is being given

Subjective Inputs

Major vote influencers in the area
Dynamics of different factions within a party
Trend of voting for major castes
Inputs related to local body and other smaller elections
Comparison of all prospective candidates image in terms of popularity, participation in development activities
Comparison between parties based on the level of activity and necessity for the area
The outcomes of a complete Baseline Research will be as below:

Polling Booth Level Profile which will include booth level issues – political and developmental, work done on the booth as well as a subjective assessment of the political situation of the polling booth.

Database of active party workers (from all parties) and around Opinion Poll respondents from each assembly, along with their Age, Gender, Caste, Occupation, Mobile Numbers etc will be collated.

SWOT Analysis at the booth level, indicating strong, weak, opportunity, and threat booths.
Voting trends with respect to Caste, Occupation, Age, and their combinations at the Assembly .